Geneva, 21.2.07 - Here's a follow-up to our recent exchange on the likelihood of an imminent US/Israeli attack on Iran and what, in the event, such a development would have on the financial market - Switzerland's in particular.

1.    Today, the UN's deadline passes for compliance with its SC resolution on suspension of Iran's enrichment activities. Even if the - initially Bern-sabotaged - Swiss good office avenues were finally put to fruition, the persistently loosing gamblers at the top of the US and the Israeli power hierarchy are seen to be either incapable or unwilling to recognize and come out of their denial mode and thus to abandon the symptomatic Befreiungsschlag mindset. And though the growing saber-rattling may, in Washington, reflect a genuine intention and belief to be able to impress US world-visions on the Iranian leadership without military means, publicly pushing the plan to open up a third, an Iranian war front, is quickly approaching the point of no-return, of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Today's announcement of imminent British and Danish troop withdrawals from Iraq is seen more to reflect than to stand in the way of this development - as is the latest US troop surge and the rush construction of a secret US base along the strategic Baghdad-Teheran road near Khanaqin in the Diyala province. All of which have only for the blue-eyed, faint-hearted and wishful thinkers anything to do with the publicly proclaimed objective of "securing Baghdad".
2.    Most observers concur that an attack on Iran - be it with nuclear, depleted uranium or conventional weapons - could not be justified on the grounds advanced so far. Militarily, such a course of action is generally seen to be an excessively dangerous path entailing the potential for an imminent global security and economic disaster.
3.    Politically, the lame-duck US President would want to push the Iran war plans back until the last moment of his presidency. This in order, if it succeeds, to positively influence the next presidential elections and, if it fails, to shift the burden of the disaster on the democrats and thus to spoil their otherwise probable 16-year reign. But that ignores the current and the evolving Israeli political landscape, with the country's leadership severely weakened by scandals and military fumblings, and with elections, at least for the Presidency, only months away. Their apparent aim: "degrading" Iran better today than tomorrow. Recent official declarations on Israel's nuclear weapon status, and on the "existential threat" Iran's uranium enrichment program allegedly poses to Israel's security, all add up to an alarming, Masada-type reasoning at high levels. This is mixed with a self-deluding win-win mindset associated with early actions and a disquieting confidence at one's capability - once the attack begun with bombers perhaps using false-flags - to successfully and promptly force the hands of the US president.
4.    The probability for a large-scale military conflagration in the Middle East to occur in the time frame between tomorrow and end of April 2007 is thus seen to be in the neighborhood of 60%.
5.    Such a development is likely to unleash a stampede out of the dollar, particularly from Mideastern citizens, and into Switzerland which - contrary to such refuges as Singapour - has a significant, territorial-based and population-supported real economy. Negative-interest memories come alive. On the upside, and for the short term, Switzerland could be recognized universally as a genuine and mutually beneficial bullwark against the vagaries of time and, as such, might be less vulnerable to reckless external pressures and internal cave-ins in favor of US interests. Unless, of course, our chances as a competently governed sovereign country are again fumbled, e.g. on the current occasion to formulate appropriate financial surveillance norms and credible barriers against self-damaging and undignified legal assistance arrangements - regardless of the latest fashionable fig-leaves invoked (www.solami.com/FINMAG.htm ¦ .../finma.htm) ¦ .../diamantball.htm).
 
 

Swiss Good Offices on Nuclear Energy Matters, Parliamentary Motion (06.3103: D, F, I, E)
UNSC resolution 255 on nuclear threats ¦ US-Israel/Iran nuclear conflict out of control?
Bankers at risk: US Treasury designates Iranian bank as WMD proliferator
March 07   "Bomb Iran!" From the Wonderful Folks Who Brought You Iraq, Vanity Fair, Craig Unger
21 Feb 07   Iran & US: "Natural allies" or substitute enemies?, CNN, Christiane Amanpour
21 Feb 07   Table Talk, WSJ, Michael Rubin and Danielle Pletka
16 Feb 07   Iran Must Get Ready to Repel a Nuclear Attack, voltairenet.org, Léonid Ivashov (version française)
16 féb 07  L’Iran doit se tenir prêt à contrer une attaque nucléaire, voltairenet.org, Léonid Ivashov
13 Feb 07   "the bigger the failure, the less [the Bush admininistration] learns", NYT, Editorial
8 Feb 07   Next stop Iran?, The Economist, Leader
8 Feb 07   A countdown to confrontation, The Economist
8 Feb 07   Iranian Cleric Warns U.S. on Attacks, NYT, AP
4 Feb 07   The Peace Paradox, NYT MAGAZINE, David A. Bell, Reconsideration
2 Feb 07   Imagining A War With Iran, The New York Sun, Youssef Ibrahim
Jan 07   US military strike on Iran seen by April, attack to hit oil, N-sites, Arab Times, Ahmed Al-Jarallah
30 Jan 07   U.S.'s Atom for Peace Program Helped Iran, democracynow.org, Sam Roe & Amy Goodman
28 Jan 07   Whose Iran?, NYT magazine, Laura Secor
27 Jan 07   Bush Throws The Dice, ICHBLOG.EU, John Damien
27 Jan 07   Sanktionen: Zwischen Diplomatie und Militärgewalt, nzz.ch, Kommentar
23 Jan 07   6 years Bush crew - 6 years US Iran military planning, therawstory, Larisa Alexandrovna et al.
19 Jan 07   Rebuke in Iran to Its President on Nuclear Role, NYT, Nazila Fathi and Michael Slackman
12 Jan 07   The U.S.-Iran-Iraq-Israel-Syria War, consortiumnews.com, Robert Parry
8 Jan 07   If Israel had nukes, would it use them against Iran?, Jerusalem Post, Yaakov Katz, reader comments
8 Jan 07   You'd better hold us Israelis back, 'before we do something crazy ...', Irish Independent, Eric Silver
8 Jan 06   An alibi for the Arrow, Haaretz, Reuven Pedatzur, reader comments
8 Jan 07   Out-of-the-box thinking is called for!, Iconoclast
8 Jan 07   Military strike is only way to stop Iran, says top Israeli strategist, The Independent, Eric Silver
8.Jan 07   Ein brisanter Trainingsbericht, Berliner Zeitung, Roland Heine, Kommentar
8.Jan 07   Israel will Iran atomar angreifen, Berliner Zeitung, AFP
8 Jan 07   Israel denies nuclear strike plan, The Times, David Sharrock
8 Jan 07   Israel planning nuclear strike, second UK paper claims, Turkish Daily News
7 Jan 07   Revealed: Israel plans nuclear strike on Iran - Focus: Mission Iran, Sunday Times, Uzi Mahnaimi
27 Nov 06   Is a damaged Administration less likely to attack Iran, or more?, New Yorker, Seymour M. Hersh
21 nov 06   Le prochain épisode, LeGrandSoir.info, New Yorker, Seymour M. Hersh
13 Nov 06   Awaiting the Iranian messiah, Persian Journal, Yaakov Lappin
10 Nov 06   Israel minister warning Iran, BBC NEWS
2 Nov 06   "A Secret Letter from the US President to Iranian President", Tough Dove Israel, Gidon D. Remba
8 Oct 06   Links with "Rogue States": US Treasury Secretary leans on banks, The Observer, Conal Walsh
3 oct 06   Iran: L’ombre de la guerre ou la guerre des ombres, LeGrandSoir.info, Houshang Sepehr
2 Oct 06   An Offer Tehran Can't Refuse, NYT, Ted Koppel.
25 Sep 06   Iran's gulf of misunderstanding with US, BBC News, Gordon Corera
21 sep 06   Washington invite les banques suisses à couper les liens avec l'Iran, Le Temps, Yves Genier
21 Sep 06   World poll favours Iran diplomacy, BBC NEWS
19 Sep 06   Iranian President's speech at UN General Assembly
6 Sep 06   Zoroastrians Keep the Faith, and Keep Dwindling, NYT, LAURIE GOODSTEIN
21 Aug 06   Washington’s interests in Israel’s war, The New Yorker, SEYMOUR M. HERSH
10 Aug 06   Israel/Iran - why not reanimate a natural alliance?, ICESC
9 Aug 06   Exit Pathway Indicators on Current Mideastern Conflicts, ICESC
9 Aug 06   After Lebanon, there's Iran, Christian Science Monitor, Vali Nasr
31 July 06   Swiss backstage diplomacy grows over Iran, swissinfo, Daniele Mariani
31 July 06   The Next Steps With Iran, Washington Post , Henry A. Kissinger
31 July 06   Political Catalysts for Global Mideastern Package, GOGEL
10 July 06   The military’s problem with the President’s Iran policy, The New Yorker, Seymour M. Hersh
21 June 06   Iran's Gray Area on Nuclear Arms, Washington Post, Karl Vick
20 June 06   The Race for Iran, NYT, Flynt Leverett
18 June 06   Extremist Image Masks Iranians' Many Faiths, Washington Post, Karl Vick
16 May 06   Harvard & other impulses for unlocking the US/Iran nuclear gridlock, ICESC
8 May 06   Letter of Iranian President to American President
27 Mar 06    Swiss lawmakers point out pathways for resolving US/Iran nuclear stalemate, GOGEL
16 Apr 06   The Pentagon Preps for Iran, Washington Post, William M. Arkin
14 Mar 06   Nuclear Bunker Buster Bombs againt Iran, Global Research, Stephen M. Osborn
11.März 06  Schweizer Gute Dienste im US/Iran-Konflikt?, Anton Keller
2 Mar  06  NPT-conform peaceful nuclear activities under Russian sovereignty - in Iran, Anton Keller
27 Jan 06   Bush and China Endorse Russia's Nuclear Plan for Iran, NYT, David E. Sanger et al.
25 Sep 05   More Light & Less Flat-Earth Missionaries!, Iconoclast
14 Aug 95   Christians as a Religious Minority in Iran (I.C.E.S.C. testimony), Father N.A.G. Topouzian